Global Markets Report - 12 June
ASX set to open lower, after US stocks ended mixed.
Australia
Australian shares are set to open lower, after US stocks ended mixed.
ASX futures were down 0.5% or 36 points as of 8:00am on Wednesday, suggesting a lower open.
Strong gains for technology stocks helped lift major US indexes ahead of Wednesday's double bill of key inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision.
A day after hitting a record high, the S&P 500 added another 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped around 121 points, or 0.3%, while a good day for tech shares drove the Nasdaq Composite up 0.9%.
In commodity markets, Brent crude oil was up 0.6% to US$82.12 a barrel, while gold was flat at US$2,316.90.
In local bond markets, the yield on Australian 2 Year government bonds was up at 4.05% while the 10 Year yield was also up at 4.32%. US Treasury notes were down, with the 2 Year yield at 4.83% and the 10 Year yield at 4.40%.
The Australian dollar was 66.06 US cents, up from its previous close of 66.03. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the US dollar against 16 other currencies, was up at 99.93.
Asia
Chinese shares closed mixed, with gains in semiconductors and software vying with losses in banks and marine shipping. Investors are watching CPI and PPI data due Wednesday for signs of demand strength. Cosco Shipping led the losses, down 10% amid geopolitical uncertainties. China Merchants Energy and Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers fell 6.7% and 7.2%, respectively. Lenders weighed as Agricultural Bank of China fell 2.1% and Bank of Communications lost 2.85%. Semiconductors stocks led gains amid positive sentiment on higher demand for AI chips. SMIC was up 3.7% and Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic gained 12%. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8% to 3028.05, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.3% and the ChiNext Price Index was up 0.35%.
Hong Kong shares ended lower, weighed by consumer and health stocks. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.0% to 18176.34 and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 0.45%. Investors are watching for China CPI data and the U.S. Fed decision due later this week. Among major stocks, China Resources Beer dropped 4.8% and JD Health International declined 2.0%. Gainers included SMIC, which was 2.7% higher, and Meituan, up 1.6%.
The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.2% to 39134.79 as gains in machinery and chip shares helped offset losses in brokerage and shipping stocks. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries gained 2.8% and Tokyo Electron Ltd. climbed 2.2%, while Daiwa Securities Group dropping 4.6% and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines losing 3.7%. The broader Topix market index fell 0.2% to 2776.80. Investors are focused on economic data and their policy implications ahead of Fed and Bank of Japan policy decisions later this week. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield was down 1 basis point to 1.020%.
Indian shares ended flat as gains among auto stocks offset weakness in bank stocks. Tata Motors added 1.3% and Maruti Suzuki was 1.1% higher. Heavyweight bank stocks ended broadly lower as Kotak Mahindra Bank dropped 1.4% and Axis Bank was 0.55% lower. Cement stocks continued to rally on infrastructure investment hopes, with UltraTech Cement up 0.9%. "Despite the Modi government's weakened electoral mandate, there are good reasons to think that infrastructure investment will continue apace, setting the stage for strong medium-term GDP growth," Capital Economics said in a note. India's benchmark Sensex Index ended flat at 76456.59.
Europe
Stocks in the U.K. slipped Tuesday, as the FTSE 100 Index dropped 1.0% to 8147.81.
Among large companies, Future PLC posted the largest decline, dropping 5.2%, followed by shares of Antofagasta PLC, which fell 4.3%. Shares of Standard Chartered PLC fell 4.2%.
Oxford Instruments PLC was the biggest gainer during the session, surging 7.1%, and Alphawave IP Group PLC surged 6.3%. Dowlais Group PLC rounded out the top three movers on Tuesday, as shares gained 2.4%.
In Europe, shares closed lower, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index down 0.9% to 517.29, Germany's DAX slipped 0.6% to 18,369.94 and France's CAC 40 dropping 1.3% to 7,789.21.
North America
Strong gains for technology stocks helped lift major indexes ahead of Wednesday's double bill of key inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision.
A day after hitting a record high, the S&P 500 added another 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped around 121 points, or 0.3%, while a good day for tech shares drove the Nasdaq Composite up 0.9%.
Apple was a standout performer, surging 7.3% to reach its first record high of the year a day after the iPhone maker revealed its new AI system. Otherwise, it was a quiet trading session, with investors preparing for two events that should help clarify the outlook for short-term interest rates set by the Fed.
Before Wednesday's opening bell, the Labor Department will release the consumer-price-index report for May, providing an important update on inflation. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect that core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, ticked down to 3.5% in May from 3.6% in April.
Investors will be looking for further evidence that underlying inflation pressures are easing after April's CPI report showed signs of modest progress. That report followed three consecutive months of hotter-than-expected data, leading investors to scale back expectations for how much the Fed will cut rates this year.
As it stands, interest-rate futures suggest that investors think that it is roughly a tossup whether the Fed cuts rates one or two times in 2024, according to CME Group data. Investors had come into the year betting on around six 0.25-percentage-point cuts, confident that inflation was headed to the Fed's 2% target and that the Fed would start trying to guard against a recession.
Investors see almost no chance that the Fed will cut rates this week but are eagerly anticipating the release of the so-called dot plot, which shows the anonymous rate forecasts of individual Fed officials.
The last dot plot, released in March, showed a median forecast of three rate cuts this year. Most analysts expect that to fall to one or two, with the morning inflation data possibly swaying officials who are on the fence.
Some analysts argue that modest changes in the interest-rate outlook are unlikely to have a major impact on stocks, beyond a few trading sessions. They note that stocks have climbed this year -- with the S&P 500 up 13% -- despite investors expecting rates to stay near current levels for longer.
One tailwind for markets: Analysts currently expect companies in the S&P 500 to earn around $259 a share over the next 12 months, according to FactSet. That is up from a forecast of $243 a share at the start of the year.
"It's not rate cuts that the market is trading higher on," said Michael Antonelli, market strategist at Baird. "It's [that] earnings are going higher."
The S&P 500 spent much of Tuesday in negative territory before climbing into the green later in the session. Information technology led the way among S&P 500 sectors, rising 1.7%, while financials were the worst-performing sector, shedding 1.2%. That included declines in the shares of the country's largest banks, with JPMorgan Chase falling 2.6% and Bank of America shedding 2%.
Boeing shares fell 2.4% after the airplane maker reported that it had delivered 24 jets and booked four orders for planes in May, disappointing investors.