President Donald Trump is approaching the end of the first 100 days of his second term, and it hasn’t unfolded as many investors expected.

Markets cheered after the inauguration of a president who campaigned on sending America’s economy soaring. Instead, the Trump administration’s policies have upended a positive outlook for global growth, sent stocks tumbling to the brink of a bear market, and left investors worldwide questioning the role of US investments as a safe haven.

Over the course of Trump’s first 100 days (which officially end on Wednesday, April 30), stocks have fallen nearly 8%. Stocks started the period stuck in the doldrums, as 2024’s big bull market in technology ran out of steam and investors began to worry about Trump’s tariff threats. More broadly, investors soured on riskier investments and began to gravitate toward more defensive postures. However, the prevailing thinking was that Trump would not move so aggressively that he would tank the stock market.

The picture changed dramatically on the afternoon of April 2, when the scope and scale of new “reciprocal” tariffs announced for dozens of US trading partners stunned investors in the United States and across the globe. Stocks plunged, the dollar and US government bonds slid, and investors sought safety in gold. The “worst since” superlatives that accompanied the market’s declines harkened back to the collapse that accompanied the onset of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Here’s a look at how Trump’s first 100 days have played out across key markets.

Trump’s near-bear market

Thanks in large part to Trump’s levies against Mexico and Canada in the weeks immediately after his inauguration, US stocks had already been in retreat when Trump unveiled his tariffs. The market dove on April 3, and within days it was down as much as 19.4% (excluding dividends) from its most recent record high set just a month and a half earlier on Feb. 19—only a hair away from the 20% decline that marks a bear market. At that point, the stock market was off to its worst start to the year since March 2020.

This marked a 180-degree turn from the optimistic mood on Wall Street in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s election, which saw investors celebrate the prospect of a pro-growth, pro-business administration.

On April 9, amid back-and-forth headlines and contradictory statements from administration officials, Trump reversed course and delayed many of the levies for 90 days. Even as he left in place a 145% tariff on China, the stock market roared higher amid optimism that Trump would continue to retreat on his most aggressive tariffs. The Morningstar US Market Index heads into Trump’s 100th day up just over 11% from its worst levels.

Volatility reigns amid trade wars

Investors accustomed to relatively smooth sailing in the markets over the last two years have found themselves in unpleasantly volatile territory. The past month alone brought some of the biggest swings the stock market has seen in years. The US Market Index fell a total of more than 10% over two consecutive sessions in early April, only to soar more than 9% on April 9.

That rally was the largest gain in the broad stock market since October 2008, and saw massive gains in stocks that had been beaten up in the tariff downdraft. Apple AAPL, for example, jumped more than 15% that day, its biggest gain since 1998. Tesla TSLA, whose fortunes have become increasingly intertwined with CEO Elon Musk’s political efforts to cut the federal workforce, surged nearly 23%, its largest one-day jump since May 2013.

Stocks have calmed some since Trump’s reversal, but they remain significantly more volatile compared with the beginning of the year. Ongoing changes to the tariff outlook and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have continued to fuel major swings in equities and other markets.

Reflecting this volatility, the stock market rose 2% or more on 10 out of the 68 days the markets were open, making for 15% of the sessions. In all of 2024, moves that large only happened 3% of the time. Even more dramatically, four of those sessions saw US stocks swing by 3% or more. That happened only once in 2024.

Bond market yields jump on tariff and Fed worries

While stocks normally attract most of the attention, in the days after the April tariffs announcement, the normally sleepy world of US government bonds began to raise eyebrows and concerns. Government bond yields fell steadily in the early days of the year, but shot higher in the aftermath of the tariff announcement.

Treasury yields usually fall amid a deteriorating economic outlook as investors seek safety in government debt, since more buyers drive prices up and prices move in the opposite direction of yields. In addition, economists significantly raised the odds of a recession, thanks to the negative impact of policy uncertainty and the tariffs themselves, which would usually send bond prices up and yields down.

Bond fund managers and analysts pointed to several forces driving yields higher. One is the inflationary impact of tariffs. Preston Caldwell, Morningstar’s senior US economist, raised his forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure) by 0.6 percentage points to 3.0% for 2025 and by 1.3 percentage points to 3.2% in 2026

Many in the bond market also point to a temporary phenomenon of hedge funds and other short-term traders having to sell bonds to raise cash. But most concerning was the idea that global investors have become less confident about the relative safety of the US financial system. That means they’re likely to demand a higher premium to compensate for the risk associated with US government debt, which translates to higher bond yields.

Investors seek safety in gold amid tariff turmoil

As stocks have struggled, some investors have flocked to gold. The precious metal is often treated as a hedge against economic downturns, geopolitical unease, or sticky inflation, and all three of those scenarios have been top of mind for investors these last few months. The price of gold soared from $2,755 an ounce in January to a record high of more than $3,400 an ounce in April as the equities market whipsawed.

The crypto President’s crypto roller coaster

Crypto boosters were bullish, as Trump, who has proclaimed himself the crypto president, was expected to lighten regulation of the industry. However, bitcoin prices tumbled for the majority of Trump’s first 100 days, as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, and bitcoin traded more like technology stocks than an alternative to the US dollar.

The popular cryptocurrency has regained some ground following Trump’s 90-day pause on the April 2 tariffs. Overall, bitcoin prices have fallen 9% over the course of the first 100 days of Trump’s second term.

The stock rotation gains steam

The first days of Trump’s second term also saw the unwinding of the “America First” theme that has dominated the stock market for a decade or more. Even before the major tariff announcement, investors were dipping their toes into international waters, with Chinese and European markets outperforming the US over the course of the first quarter.

Not all of the moves were related to tariffs. In Europe, Trump’s flagging support for Ukraine led governments to rethink defense spending. Most notably, in Germany, this led to the sudden end to the country’s decades-old spending “brake,” which limited its ability to increase defense outlays. That sparked a massive rally in German and other European defense stocks.

And while US equities have struggled to regain ground, international markets have fared better in the aftermath of Trump’s tariff announcement.

Investors haven’t only rotated out of the US market; they’ve also rotated within it. A deteriorating outlook for growth and inflation has dented the performance of nearly every sector this year, with one notable exception: consumer staples.

This is the lone category that has posted a meaningful gain during Trump’s first 100 days. Consumer staples stocks tend to have less exposure to tariffs than their discretionary counterparts, and they have proved a relative safe haven as other sectors struggle. Consumer staples have gained nearly 4% since Trump took office in January.

Diversification worked

Amid the dramatic headlines and market turmoil, there was one market trend that was perhaps most important to investors: Diversified portfolios were better at riding out the storm.

Even as the bond market shuddered in April, fixed-income markets continued to insulate investors against the worst of the stock market’s losses. The Morningstar US Moderate Target Allocation Index, which contains a diversified mix of 60% equities and 40% bonds and was designed as a benchmark for a classic 60/40 portfolio, has lost 2.1% over the course of Trump’s first 100 days, compared with 8% losses for the total US stock market index.