Election results and market frenzy: Sim’s monthly insights for November
Keep calm and stop checking your portfolio.
Mentioned: PEXA Group Ltd (PXA), BlueScope Steel Ltd (BSL), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), IGO Ltd (IGO), Iluka Resources Ltd (ILU), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN), Perpetual Ltd (PPT)
November at Morningstar was an eventful month packed with news both globally and on the home front.
Despite this, it distinctly elicits the memory of sitting at my desk, perpetually refreshing the US electoral map as the world watched the results trickle in.
Trump is victorious
Markets soared in response to the Trump administration coming out on top, as I fell into the trap of analysing my own portfolio in response. I distinctly recall where I was and what I was doing during the past three US elections – and like many – checking my investments had certainly been part of that day.
In an investing world that constantly encourages investors to make irrational decisions based on market-moving macroeconomic events, Morningstar’s investment philosophy champions the bigger picture. In this article, I explore research that shows party affiliation has little correlation on returns and staying invested in the long term ultimately pays off. Furthermore, we propose BlueScope Steel, James Hardie Industries and Illuka Resources may all stand to benefit from the Trump administration.
HECS relief?
On the home front our own Federal elections are poised for mid-next year as the parties ramp up their campaigns to appeal to individuals effected by the ongoing cost of living crisis.
The Labor government recently proposed taking 20% of all outstanding HECS balance, increasing the income repayment threshold and indexing balances on the lower of the WPI or CPI. The move garnered mixed reviews with some welcoming the relief, but others raising concerns that it fails to address the true issue at hand – the rising cost of higher education.
I take the latter stance in this two-part series where I explain the changes in depth and outline my concerns then model the implications of the new policy to determine which groups will benefit and whether you should pay off your HECS balance or invest instead.
Stocks
Commonwealth Bank, the name resounding throughout boardrooms, conferences and industry events seems to be top of mind for most investors with a year-to-date share price surge of ~40%. This month saw the largest player on the ASX continue its rally soaring to all-time highs as questions of inflated value remain at the forefront.
November saw prominent Aussie miners announcing a lithium overhaul, with operations temporary suspended or reduced to account amidst falling demand. Whilst investor sentiment seems to be on a never-ending decline, Morningstar’s recent lithium price forecasts suggest there may be some relief in the horizon. IGO Ltd and Mineral Resources are our cheapest ASX picks to that could ride investors into the next lithium bull run.
To conclude I uncover the elusive world of small cap investing. The Trump win and an impending rate cut environment have bought a renewed momentum to the asset class. In this two-part series I examine the key risks and considerations of small cap companies and compare the Australian and global returns for the asset class. In part two, I propose a share screen that attempts to negate the risks previously discussed and highlight PEXA Group Ltd and Perpetual Limited who present value proposition at current prices.