Global Markets Report - 15 August
Australian shares are uncertain this morning after a strong session on Wall Street.
Australia
Australian shares are uncertain this morning after a strong session on Wall Street. While real estate and property shares sent Asian markets tumbling, technology shares lifted major US indices.
ASX futures were flat as of 6:00am on Tuesday.
A rebound in tech shares lifted US stock indices Monday, while yields on longer-term bonds stabilized after briefly threatening their highest levels in more than a decade.
Reversing a recent trend of outperformance by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the way among the three major indices, gaining 1.1%. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, while the Dow ticked up 0.1%. Canadian shares closed lower, with the S&P/TSX Composite dropping 0.6%.
In commodity markets, Brent crude oil dropped 0.6% to US$86.26 a barrel while gold lost 0.3% to US$1,907.44.
Australian government bonds were higher, with the 2 Year yield rising to 3.94% and the 10 Year yield increasing to 4.19%. US Treasury notes were also higher, with the 2 Year yield advancing to 4.96% and the 10 Year yield climbing to 4.19%.
The Australian dollar declined to 64.80 US cents from its previous close of 64.95. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which tracks the US dollar against 16 other currencies, rose to 97.92.
Asia
Chinese shares ended lower with investor sentiment weighed by Friday's weak credit data and property developer Country Garden's potential default. Automakers and insurance companies led the decline. BYD Co. fell 5.2% and Great Wall Motor declined 4.5% as EV makers started a new round of price wars, which investors believe could hurt their margins. Insurance company Ping An Insurance fell 1.7% and China Life Insurance dropped 1.4%. Focus was on China's retail sales and industrial output data due Tuesday. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.3% to 3178.43. The Shenzhen Composite Index declined 0.1% and the tech-heavy ChiNext Price Index lost 1.0%.
Hong Kong shares ended lower as property stocks dragged. Investor sentiment was weighed down by weak credit data out of China on Friday, and fresh concerns about the property sector. The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.6% to 18773.55. Real estate developers led the losses, with the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index dropping 3.7% to 1581.50. Country Garden Holdings plunged 18% and China Jinmao lost 4.1%. Tech companies added to the losses, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping 1.5%. Alibaba Group fell 2.6% and Baidu shed 2.3%. Investors awaited a slew of Chinese economic data due out Tuesday, including retail sales and industrial output.
Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.3% to close at 32059.91, reversing earlier gains amid worries over higher US rates, which were driven by hotter-than-expected PPI data on Friday. Some unease has been triggered by the surprise uptick in US producer prices, explained Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG, in an email. The worst performers on the benchmark index included Nippon Paint, which fell 5.5%, Inpex, which dropped 4.8%, and Honda Motor, which was down 4.0%.
Indian stocks shrugged off earlier losses to end with a slight gain after India's July wholesale price index continued in the deflationary zone for the fourth straight month. However, CareEdge economist Rajani Sinha noted that the pace of WPI decline slowed significantly compared to the previous two months, driven by a spike in vegetable prices. Among gainers, Reliance rose 1.7%, Infosys was up 1.6% and Hindustan Unilever climbed 1.25%. JSW Steel and State Bank of India were the worst performers, losing 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively. The benchmark Sensex index closed 0.1% higher at 65401.92.
Europe
European stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors anticipated a slightly higher US open. The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 and the French CAC 40 added 0.1% while the German DAX advanced 0.5%.
Chinese industrial production and retail sales data are expected early in the week, with the former expected to rise 4.3% year-on-year and the latter gaining 4.2%, Lazard said. Meanwhile, economists expect UK July headline and core CPI inflation of 6.8% as energy and food prices increase at a slightly slower pace, the asset manager said. "Watch services inflation for any signs of decelerating pressure there," wrote Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard.
The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 Index underperformed its European peers, closing with a 0.2% loss at 7507 points. Commodities-exposed stocks dragged the index lower. Retailer Ocado was the worst performer, with shares closing down 4.3%, followed by miner Anglo American and Entain, down 3.6% and 3.2% respectively. BP and Shell shares closed down 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively, as Brent crude oil fell 0.5% to $86.39.
North America
A rebound in tech shares lifted US stock indices Monday, while yields on longer-term bonds stabilized after briefly threatening their highest levels in more than a decade.
Reversing a recent trend of outperformance by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the way among the three major indices, gaining 1.1%. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, while the Dow ticked up 0.1%. Canadian shares closed lower, with the S&P/TSX Composite dropping 0.6%.
Tech shares got a particular boost early in the trading session when bond yields reversed course after climbing sharply before -- and just after -- the opening bell.
The yield on the benchmark 10 Year US Treasury note at one point reached as high as 4.215%, near the 4.231% level set on Oct. 24, which was its highest close since 2008. That proved to be a turning point, bringing in buyers who drove the yield back below 4.2% to finish the day at 4.181%.
Yields on Treasurys, which rise when their prices fall, have climbed in recent weeks partly due to a run of solid economic data that has led investors to scale back bets on a recession that would lead the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.
Growing optimism about the economy has also helped buoy stocks this year. Stocks can get unsettled, however, when Treasury yields surpass key thresholds, giving investors an alternative to riskier assets. That is especially true for shares of high-growth businesses, including many tech companies, which are valued in large part for earnings that are expected to arrive further in the future.
Highlighting the day's strength in tech stocks, shares of Nvidia rose 7.1% after falling 13% this month through Friday. The chip-making giant earlier this year became the poster child for investor optimism about artificial intelligence technology when it revealed upbeat sales guidance based on what it said was surging demand for chips needed to create AI tools.
Optimism surrounding AI has broadly helped lift tech stocks following a brutal 2022 defined by sharply rising interest rates and fears of a near-term recession.
After Nvidia "announced their guidance, you got a massive up-move in the market, where up until that point everyone had been focused on the Fed," said Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management, though that rally has more recently run its course.
The S&P 500's information-technology sector rose 1.9% Monday, its largest gain since June 27. Lagging just behind Nvidia, chip maker Micron Technology rose 6.1%, while Meta Platforms gained 1.5%.