Global Markets Report - 19 June
Australian shares look set to open flat at the start of the new trading week.
Australia
Australian shares are likely to open flat at the start of the new trading week.
ASX futures are barely moved ahead of Monday's open, sitting just three points, or less than 0.1%, lower.
Investor focus this week will likely be on Tuesday's publication of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's June board meeting, at which the central bank raised interest rates again. Any clue about the bank's thinking on the future path for rates will be seized upon by traders.
US stocks retreated Friday but still finished higher for the week. The S&P 500 shed 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7%.
In commodity markets, oil futures settled at their highest in more than a week, contributing to their largest gain since April with traders encouraged by signs of an improving demand outlook.
August Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 1.2% at $76.61 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a 2.4% weekly gain. Spot gold prices remained flat at US$1,958.01.
The 2 year Australian government bonds yield inched up to 4.18% and the 10 Year yield edged up to 4.01%. US Treasury notes were also higher, with the 2 Year yield rising to 4.71% and the 10 Year yield climbing to 3.76%.
The Australian dollar edged down to 68.75 US cents.
Asia
Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose 0.7% to close at 33706.08, reversing earlier losses on the prospect that the BOJ may maintain its easy monetary policy.
The BOJ continues to remain dovish, says Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, in an email, noting the central bank's decision to leave its ultra-low interest rates unchanged. The best performers on the Japanese benchmark index included Shiseido, which climbed 5.3%, Canon Inc., which added 4.9%, and Oracle Corp.
Chinese stocks ended higher, buoyed by optimism that Beijing will issue more policy support to prop up the economy. The mood may also have been buoyed by hopes US-China ties may improve as the U.S. secretary of state flew to Beijing to meet officials.
The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.6%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.0%, and the ChiNext Price Index added 1.4%.
Europe
European stocks rose as investors stay upbeat after a week of hawkish signals and moves from central banks in the US and Europe, with more to come next week.
The Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 0.5%, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.2%, the CAC 40 gained 1.3% and the DAX rose 0.4%.
The Bank of England looks set to increase rates to 4.75% next Thursday and raise them again in August and September, resulting in a terminal rate of 5.25%, Investec says.
"Our baseline case is that rates won't rise as far as 6%, but policy-makers are currently in a state of heightened data dependency and we note that significant risks exist in both directions," Investec's Philip Shaw wrote.
North America
Major stock indexes backed off the 2023 highs they hit on Thursday but ended the week higher, lifted by the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate increases as well as data showing US consumer confidence and spending is picking up.
The S&P 500 shed 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.7%.
The University of Michigan's consumer-confidence survey registered 63.9 for June, up from 59.2 in May and above Wall Street's expectation of 60. But two Federal Reserve policy makers reinforced the central bank's message that more rate hikes are needed to bring down inflation.
"I'll call 2023 the most talked about recession that never happened," said Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen, in a phone interview. And now "there's a bit of FOMO going on."