Firstlinks Edition 488
Retirement's problems; Financial advice reimagined; 2022's X-factor; Inflation resistant stocks; Buying Spotify; US recession call; Carer or partner?
In this week's edition ...
Jon Kalkman examines the distortions appearing in Australia's retirement system. He gives a great overview of the three pillars of the system: the age pension, super and private savings. He goes on to suggest that there are things which need urgent fixing to make the system fair and equitable.
The wealth management industry has been in the doldrums and Harry Chemay and Brett Ebedes think the key issue is the huge gap between what the customer wants to pay for advice and the cost of supplying that advice. They suggest how the financial advice sector can regain lost ground and create the foundations for future growth.
Don Stammer is back with the 41st edition of the X-factor report. Each year, Don picks the X-factor: a largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns. What wins in 2022?
Vince Pezzullo from Perpetual Investment Management may have seen a preview of this year's X-factor winner because he's been busy inflation proofing his portfolio. He likes the metals sector, insurers and turnaround stocks such as A2 Milk.
The main risk to an inflationary 2023 is recession and Associate Professor Konark Saxena pegs the odds of a US recession at 75%. He thinks it will be a mild recession though, and the prospect of lower rates ahead should give Australia time to fix its main economic weakness: high household debt.
Meanwhile, it's been a year to forget for the US tech sector. Andrew Macken of Montaka hasn't lost faith though. Today he focuses on music streaming business Spotify and predicts that it could be making €6 billion pre-tax operating profit by the end of this decade, compared with a market capitaisation of €15.6 billion now. If right, it's a bargain.
And lawyer Donal Griffin runs us through a recent case where the NSW Court of Appeal reversed an earlier ruling and declared a live-in carer was in fact a defacto partner. Donal believes significant financial consequences for the family could have been avoided with preventative action.
This week's White Paper is from the Franklin Templeton Institute which explores the megatrend 'expanding power of the crowd', Web3 'tokenomic' supply, and a new approach to venture capital.