Royal Commission no Big 4 game-changer
Government's "bank-flip" decision to pursue a Royal Commission into Australia's financial sector won't affect banks' fundamental value or our positive outlook, says Morningstar's David Ellis.
David Ellis: Not necessarily. I mean, there has been a lot of speculation and talk for many months, even a couple of years now, about the possibility of a bank royal commission. So, that negativity, I suppose, you could say, has influenced share prices.
But on the day, yesterday, when that was announced, the royal commission was announced, share prices for the major banks fell initially. But by the end of the day, two of the four were pretty much flat and Commonwealth Bank had suffered the highest losses. But a day later, the banks' share prices had actually recovered. So, I think, the market has really taken the announcement in its stride.
No, it won't have any change at all, because I don't consider the royal commission or potential outcomes from the royal commission will have any impact on the underlying fundamentals of the four major banks.
And in particular, I don't see the wide economic moats being diminished in any shape or form. I see the banks' strong competitive advantages retained. And I think it will be really the outcomes that are eventually announced when the royal commission reports back in approximately 12 months' time will be pretty much taken in the stride.
A couple of key points about the announcement of the royal commission is, this is not a royal commission into the four major banks. This is a royal commission into the Australian financial services sector, obviously including the four major banks, but it includes banks big and small, it includes insurance companies, it includes superannuation funds excluding self-managed super funds and it includes basically potentially any entity that has an Australian financial services license. So, it's quite broad in that respect.
But another very important outcome as the actual terms of reference of the royal commission is quite narrow and just focusing on past misconduct. Now, I think that's a good outcome for the major banks because most of the previous issues, allegations of misconduct have already been dealt with or are in the process of being dealt with. So, this announcement of royal commission is really more politics than good policy.