Competition clamping wages growth: RBA
The Reserve Bank remains doubtful about the timing of a return to meaningful growth in wages and a boost to stagnant inflation.
MELBOURNE - [AAP] The Reserve Bank remains doubtful about the timing of a return to meaningful growth in wages and a boost to stagnant inflation.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank's Melbourne Cup day meeting, at which the cash rate was left at a record low of 1.5 per cent, show its board members aren't sure when wages growth will eventuate.
They expect salaries will gradually grow as the unemployment rate falls and the dampening effects of the end of the mining boom abate.
"Members noted, however, that there was considerable uncertainty around when and how quickly wage pressures might emerge and about how much these would add to inflationary pressure," the RBA said in its meeting minutes.
"Pressure on margins from strong competition and a faster-than-expected pick-up in productivity growth could delay the pass-through of tighter labour market conditions to inflationary pressure."
Board members said persistent competitive pressures would influence the outlook for inflation, which is forecast to limp towards the 2.25 per cent mark--just inside the bank's target range--by mid-2019.
They observed that competitive pressures had led food and other retailers to alter their business models in an effort to reduce their cost structures.
"These competitive pressures on both retail margins and costs were expected to continue for quite some time."
The board members noted that in most advanced economies, wages growth had been low despite spare capacity in the labour market continuing to fall.
"They discussed the possibility that globalisation and technology were leading wage growth to be less responsive to changes in the demand for labour, which could continue for a while."
The Australian dollar dropped after the release of the minutes, falling from 75.58 US cents to 75.33 US cents by 1247 AEDT, its lowest level since June.

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