Morningstar sees dividends at Nine-Entertainment as sustainable
Morningstar's director of equity research Brian Han discusses the upside potential and possibly risks facing Nine-Entertainment.
Mentioned: Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Ltd (NEC)
Brian Han: Firstly, what the market is missing is that you have a stock that has a 5-year earnings growth outlook of between 4% to 5%. So, not spectacular but relatively solid, and more importantly, relatively secure given the uncertain economic outlook. And then, you have a chance to get that stock at a price of 10 times P/E and yielding about 7% fully franked. And we think those dividends are sustainable because of a very strong balance sheet. In fact, so strong that the company is buying back its own shares.
So, on the traditional media side, it owns the well-known Channel Nine TV network. It also owns the commercial free-to-air radio network that includes 2GB and 3AW in Melbourne. And on top of that, it owns all the Fairfax mastheads such as Australian Financial Review, Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. So, that's on the traditional media side. Then you look over to the digital media side. It owns 60% of Domain, the digital real estate portal. It owns 9Now, the broadcast video streaming business, and it also owns Stan, the subscription streaming business.
Yeah. So, firstly, if the Australian economy slows down or falls into a recession, that will hurt advertising market and therefore, hurt most of Nine's businesses. But this is where I think one of the things that the market is missing is that about 50% of Nine's earnings now come from digital-centric businesses such as 9Now, Stan and Domain, and those are more resilient, and that's up from about 30% three years ago, and we think that percentage will go over 70% in five years' time.
Now, secondly, I think people will worry that competition is increasing in the subscription streaming space and thereby hurting Stan. But we still think that market is growing. We think Stan has carved out a very differentiated and a very sustainable niche in that market, and we think Stan is really well-placed to participate in any consolidation which we think is inevitable in the next two to three years.
And then, finally, I think people are still worried about the structural pressures that are on Nine's TV network and on its Fairfax newspaper businesses. But on that front, I think the free-to-air TV network has a sustainable future if it's integrated with the 9Now broadcast video streaming business because you're offering a total TV solution for advertisers which they are eating it up now.
And then, second thing to say about the Fairfax business is that those newspapers are getting more and more of their revenues and earnings from digital subscriptions and from licensing with the Googles and the Facebooks. So, that is in stark contrast to only a few years ago when most of the advertising was from those traditional print newspaper advertising. So, that furnishes the whole of Nine with certain degree of resilience to combat any economic slowdown that we may have.