Average realized gold prices of USD 2,640 per ounce, 32% higher than a year ago, drove a more than doubling in Newmont's fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA, to about USD 3 billion. Volumes were also 5% higher, which kept unit cash costs relatively stable despite ongoing inflation.

Why it matters: 2025 guidance is broadly in line with our expectations, and we now incorporate the sale of six smaller, higher-cost mines, likely effective mid-2025. We still forecast 2025 attributable volumes of about 5.6 million ounces from its remaining mines, similar to 2024.

  • But our expected attributable volumes for 2026 through 2028 fall by 5% on average, to 5.9 million ounces. This is driven by a slower-than-previously-expected increase in production at its Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo joint ventures, as guided by operator Barrick.
  • We continue to expect forecast attributable volumes to rise to around 6.4 million ounces midcycle by 2029, driven by Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, Lihir, Tanami, and Boddington, partially offset by lower production at Yanacocha.

The bottom line: We reduce our fair value estimate for no-moat Newmont by 2% to USD 51 per share. With the shares around 17% below fair value, it continues to repurchase shares at value-accretive prices. On its current program, USD 1.8 billion remains, representing around 4% of its share count. 

  • Unit cash costs are still too high, likely a driver of the shares trading at a discount. But we think the sale of six higher-cost mines and likely rising production from many of its larger, lower-cost mines over our five-year forecast period will improve unit cash costs and margins.
  • Its quarterly dividend remains USD 25 cents, representing a modest forward 2.4% yield.

Key stats: The company fully owns or has minority stakes in five of the world's 10 largest gold mines and has two decades of gold reserves and significant byproduct reserves, including copper, at the end of December 2024. 

Shares remain undervalued

Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, with a portfolio reflecting three major deals in recent years. First, it acquired fellow gold producer Goldcorp for a relatively mild premium in 2019. Not only did it avoid paying a high price, Newmont also extracted better performance at mines where Goldcorp struggled.

Second, it combined its crown jewel Nevada assets with Barrick Gold's in a joint venture called Nevada Gold Mines, also in 2019. With Barrick as the operator, Newmont owns 38.5% of the partnership, which reduced costs given the proximity of mines owned by the joint venture. Newmont also acquired Australian-based gold miner Newcrest in 2023.

We forecast Newmont to increase attributable gold sales volumes from its core mines to around 6.4 million ounces in 2029, up from roughly 5.5 million in 2024. The increase is driven by higher gold production from its 38.5% and 40% stakes in the NGM and Pueblo Viejo joint ventures with Barrick, respectively, Lihir, Tanami, and Boddington. As part of bedding down the Newcrest acquisition, Newmont will sell a number of its higher-cost, smaller mines, likely effective mid-2025. These mines accounted for around 20% of total volumes in 2024.

It also produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts from its various gold mines. Newmont had about two decades of gold reserves along with significant byproduct reserves at end December 2024.

In aggregate, the company sits around the middle of the cost curve but we expect some improvement.

The company has a pipeline of attractive development projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 project in Australia, Ahafo North in Ghana, and the Cerro Negro District Expansion 1 project in Argentina.

Newmont bulls say

  • Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, with copper and other byproducts providing some diversification, representing around 15% of forecast midcycle revenue from 2029.
  • The Nevada joint venture with Barrick has allowed the companies to extract significant synergies from their assets through the creation of the largest gold producing area in the world.
  • Gold companies tend not to follow general economic cycles. They can also provide a hedge to inflation risk.

Newmont bears say

  • Bigger is not always better in gold mining. Newmont's operations span four continents, increasing complexity and difficulty managing the assets.
  • Newmont's unit cash costs are around the industry average, meaning it is more affected by falling gold prices than its lower-cost competitors.
  • Gold is subject to the whims of investors, who can move as a herd and affect the gold price.

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Terms used in this article

Star Rating: Our one- to five-star ratings are guideposts to a broad audience and individuals must consider their own specific investment goals, risk tolerance, and several other factors. A five-star rating means our analysts think the current market price likely represents an excessively pessimistic outlook and that beyond fair risk-adjusted returns are likely over a long timeframe. A one-star rating means our analysts think the market is pricing in an excessively optimistic outlook, limiting upside potential and leaving the investor exposed to capital loss.

Fair Value: Morningstar’s Fair Value estimate results from a detailed projection of a company's future cash flows, resulting from our analysts' independent primary research. Price To Fair Value measures the current market price against estimated Fair Value. If a company’s stock trades at $100 and our analysts believe it is worth $200, the price to fair value ratio would be 0.5. A Price to Fair Value over 1 suggests the share is overvalued.

Moat Rating: An economic moat is a structural feature that allows a firm to sustain excess profits over a long period. Companies with a narrow moat are those we believe are more likely than not to sustain excess returns for at least a decade. For wide-moat companies, we have high confidence that excess returns will persist for 10 years and are likely to persist at least 20 years. To learn more about how to identify companies with an economic moat, read this article by Mark LaMonica.