The SEC granted Warren Buffett confidentiality on Berkshire Hathaway’s BRK.B BRK.A fourth-quarter 13F, sparking curiosity among financial media outlets and investors alike about what the mystery stock purchase (or purchases) could be.

“The regulator is usually willing to make this concession for new stock purchases by large portfolio managers when ‘such action is necessary or appropriate in the public interest and for the protection of investors or to maintain fair and orderly markets,’” explains Morningstar strategist Greggory Warren.

Eventually, Berkshire will disclose the stock(s). In the meantime, we asked Warren and Morningstar director Joshua Aguilar to share their best guesses.
What is the mystery Warren Buffett stock?

First, here’s a refresher on some of the qualities Buffett looks for when investing:

  1. Durable competitive strengths
  2. Able and high-grade management
  3. Good returns on the net tangible assets required to operate the business
  4. Opportunities for internal growth at attractive returns
  5. Sensible purchase price

Now, let’s dive into the seven Warren Buffett mystery stock guesses from Morningstar:

  1. JPMorgan Chase JPM
  2. Citigroup C
  3. PayPal Holdings PYPL
  4. Visa Class A V
  5. Mastercard Class A MA
  6. Bank of America BAC
  7. Chubb Ltd CB

JPMorgan Chase

  • Morningstar Rating: 2 Stars
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
  • Industry: Banks

What Greggory Warren thinks: “[The company is] large enough to provide liquidity and Berkshire already owned stake during 3Q18-4Q20 (which rose as high as $8.3 billion in value). Todd Combs currently sits on board (which could be seen as a positive)—Berkshire knows the firm.”

Citigroup

  • Morningstar Rating: 4 Stars
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
  • Industry: Banks

What Greggory Warren thinks: “[The company is] large enough to provide liquidity. Berkshire already owns a small stake, but [I’m] not sure they’d need to get veil of confidentiality to raise stake to 3.5%. It is still cheap, though, on a P/FVE basis, so worth taking a closer look at.”

PayPal Holdings

  • Morningstar Rating: 5 Stars
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High
  • Industry: Credit Services

What Greggory Warren thinks: “[This company is] large enough to provide liquidity and could be an interesting pick from the technology side of things (especially as it is meaningfully undervalued right now on a P/FVE basis). PayPal was spun off from eBay EBAY in 2015 and provides electronic payment solutions to merchants and consumers, with a focus on online transactions. The company had 426 million active accounts at the end of 2023. The company also owns Venmo, a person-to-person payment platform.”

Visa Class A

  • Morningstar Rating: 3 Stars
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
  • Industry: Credit Services

What Greggory Warren thinks: “[The company is] large enough to provide liquidity. Berkshire already owns a small stake (0.6% of the portfolio and 0.5% of Visa’s outstanding shares), and [I’m] not sure they’d need to get veil of confidentiality to raise stake to 1.5%.”

Mastercard Class A

  • Morningstar Rating: 2 Stars
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
  • Industry: Credit Services

What Greggory Warren thinks: “[The company is] large enough to provide liquidity. Berkshire already owns a small stake (0.5% of the portfolio and 0.4% of MasterCard’s outstanding shares), and [I’m] not sure they’d need veil of confidentiality to raise stake to 2.0%.”

Bank of America

  • Morningstar Rating: 3 Stars
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Wide
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
  • Industry: Banks

What Greggory Warren thinks: “[The company is] large enough to provide liquidity, but Berkshire already owns 13.1% of the company’s shares and has been reluctant to push their stake much higher, even though the bank regulators have lifted the 10% holding limits on banks for firms like Berkshire (given that the new ceiling has not been articulated).”
What Joshua Aguilar thinks: “It takes the place of what Wells Fargo used to be for

Buffett/Berkshire as a commercial banking leader. Buffett has commented positively on Brian Moynihan’s leadership, which was also respected by the late Charlie Munger. I think he’s less worried about the bank holding regulations moving forward.”

Chubb Ltd

  • Morningstar Rating: 2 Stars
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium
  • Industry: Insurance

What Greggory Warren thinks: “[The company is] large enough to provide liquidity. The property and casualty insurance firm is a direct competitor with BHRG and BHPG that Buffett (and Ajit Jain) have praised from time to time over the years. I wouldn’t put it past them to invest in Chubb, given the quality of the business. But like Progressive PGR, it is rarely cheap, and Berkshire has avoided holding Union Pacific UNP—a direct, and better competitor, to BNSF—after the insurer bought BNSF in 2010.”

What Joshua Aguilar thinks: “[The company is] a big insurer in oil and gas space, and Buffett’s given a lot of attention to the space with the Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY investment.”