Wild ride in FY17 and more to come - part 2

Glenn Freeman | 13/09/2017

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Glenn Freeman: And how should investors be positioning their portfolios going forward. Both in terms of sector and in terms of currency.

Peter Warnes: Well I think there's external factors – if you are talking non-financial influences, did have a lot of impact. We know geopolitically it's been a very, very wild ride 2017 and probably is not going to get any easier going forward. So those type of influences are going to, they are going to be shown out in terms of safe-haven assets, in other words gold and the yen and bonds to some degree will be impacted on what's happening in the geopolitical scene.

You've still got the US, administration--the Trump administration arm wrestling-, it hasn’t really delivered too much in terms of with the hype around November and then in his inauguration in January and he's got to deliver something. Hoping that tax reform will come by the end of year I think that’s optimistic, but you might get some movement there.

And domestically, I mean the country is not being run at all, it's being--it's in a hiatus, it's basically a bit of joke. And I think and the market is not getting any direction and business sector isn’t getting any direction from down there either.

So, it's unfortunate, but that’s the thing we are going to deal with. And of course, those things would lead into the currency I mean, the U.S. dollar has been weak because of a number of issues both domestic and international and that’s having an impact on some of our companies here that have got US dollar exposure.

And so they have been a little bit off the pace if you like, but I do think there is going to be a turn in the US dollar within the next three or six months.

The US treasury at the moment is basically broke and therefore the debt ceiling negotiations are in full swing. They will have to replenish their coffers and in addition to that the central bank, the Fed will start selling bonds over the next couple of months.

And so that’s going to suck liquidity out of the market and that liquidity. The lower liquidity will force the U.S. dollar up and all you want is for iron ore prices or commodity prices just to soften a little bit as China, as China growth comes off a little bit and the A$ could come back quite reasonably in other words below 75 and maybe even 70 by March of next year.

Freeman: And just lastly. How important have non-financial factors been, in impacting the results we've seen from companies this year. I am talking here legislation, domestic politics and overseas macro events.

Warnes: Look, the rates did quite well in 2017 despite the fact--yes from an earnings point of view they came back because of the fear of bond yield rising and what have you. The revaluations aren’t going to be--but the earning particularly in the office space area or in industrial space area.

So, the Goodmans and those companies have got office exposure in Sydney and Melbourne in particular should be okay. I keep saying that the health care space because of the ageing demographic space you should be looking at. We still think this market is still reasonably priced without getting, without being cheap.

Freeman: Thanks very much for you time today Peter.

Warnes: No, problem Glenn, always a pleasure.

Freeman: I'm Glenn Freeman from Morningstar and thanks for watching.

This report appeared on www.morningstar.com.au 2017 Morningstar Australasia Pty Limited

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