Platinum, Aussie banks and Peter Warnes among top interviews of 2016
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Glenn Freeman: I'm Glenn Freeman for Morningstar. This year we brought you a range of insights and analysis from industry experts, both inside Morningstar and external.
In May and June of this year we had interviews with Platinum's Kerr Neilson and Magellan's Hamish Douglass, who actually gave quite an accurate forecast into what would happen ahead of the Brexit vote and he pretty much nailed it.
Hamish Douglass: I would expect in the short-term there would be quite some market volatility. But do I expect major global ramifications from a Brexit? No, I don't. I think there's more noise than reality around it at the moment.
Freeman: And in July, Morningstar Australasia's head of equities, Peter Warnes, actually gave us his prediction for the size of what the ASX would be come December this year.
Peter Warnes: I just don't see where these markets are going to gain the momentum that's required to get it to 5,800. The banks in particular being 30 per cent of the market – to get to about 5,800, the banks will have to participate and I do believe that they are going to be under some pressure, not under some pressure from an earnings point of view but from a sentiment point of view.
Freeman: And in August, the SMSF Association's head of technical, Peter Hogan, gave his take on the government's proposed changes to SMSF legislation around contribution caps.
Peter Hogan: Advisers of trustees of self-managed super funds are often talking and emphasising the limitations as they change, particularly when they are reduced as the government currently proposes to do from 1 July, 2017. We also feel that perhaps the reduction, particularly for the over 50s is something that might influence or have an impact upon self-managed super fund members and trustees perhaps a little more.
Freeman: And then in October, we heard from Morningstar's senior equity analyst, David Ellis, who was speaking just after the government's first enquiry into the banks.
David Ellis: I think it was clear that the parliamentarians didn't have or don't have enough expert resources, research resources, to support them in asking, probing an important and intelligent questions. So, I think they got off relatively lightly and I think in approximately 12 months' time it's going to be tougher for them.
Freeman: That's it for 2016. Have a great Christmas and we'll be back in the New Year.
|This report appeared on www.morningstar.com.au||2017 Morningstar Australasia Pty Limited|
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